A Photo of Narrow Neck Beach and Some Artwork or Drawings?

 

Predictions for 2022

 These are Bill's predictions for 2022

1. SpaceX starship. 

This has way too many engines to be successful.
It would be better for him to think about manufacturing something in the size range of about five engines per Starship. The cost of doing all that plumbing and piping on tiny little engines in comparison with the big bulk of the Starship would be worth considering.

There will be Starship 2.0,  it will be 18m in diameter and have 7 engines on the booster. 
My prediction as at 9th of January 2022 is that they hope to send a Starship into orbit around February. This will not happen. I predict it will be two months late and I predict that it will not even reach orbit.

The next ship they send up will be around one month later, around August and it will burn up on re-entry.

Not being a negative birdy here just for the sake of it, just going on how hard it is to do this sort of thing, as proven by how hard it was to do the 10k hops in 2021.
Hats off to Elon Musk and his team for some out of the box thinking and their tenacity.

2. Tesla robots. 

I would love to see a Tesla robot sometime around June but I very much doubt that we will see any such items even in the whole of 2022. It seems a lot of very clever people have tried to solve the problem of balance which is the key factor in making a robot that approximates a human.  

If you consider that a firm called Boston dynamics has spent 10 years getting something that does solve the problem of balance but looks like something that needs to have a lot of things removed from it then you could understand a timeline of at least three years before a Tesla prototype would appear.

3. Tesla self driving. 

As of now the latest release is around about 10.8 and it appears that it is about 90 or 95% along the way of doing the job. Getting the rest of the way will be extremely difficult, So, I say we will not see Tesla full self driving before 2023 at the earliest.

4.Tesla cars. 

There will be an absolute explosion in the number of cars made by Tesla and you will find that other car companies will really be struggling to sell internal combustion engine cars at all. 

5. Tesla stock.  

At the end of 2021 the stock was around about the thousand dollar mark and  by June 2022 I think it will be around $1500 and by the end of the year it will be $2000 per share. This just a hunch.  My hunches are usually wrong!  Just as well I do not have spare cash to put into Tesla shares.

6. Robots. 

There will be many of these.  Most will be in niche

positions like making coffee or greeting guests. There will be a company (and I don't think it will be Tesla) that will create a robot that looks graceful and is almost indistinguishable from a human, coupled with an almost human level of intelligence.

This will be tremendously successful and very disruptive.

7. Artificial Intelligence.

If you have looked into a thing called GPT-3, you will see where all this is headed.

I predict several jobs will have parts that will be done by apps that people have developed using GPT-3.  

8. Architectural CAD Software.

There will emerge a new CAD software that will make all others look a bit lame and hard to use.

Most architectural consultancies will have to switch to it or go under.  It will result in reductions of  time taken to draw a building that will be on a scale too hard to ignore.  I feel for the draftees and architects that are going to have to look for other employment.

It will be real world item driven.  For instance it would know what a concrete block was and

would draw not only it, but the mortar that glues it together, as well as the rebar coming up through it.

9. Tesla Cybertruck and Tesla Semi.

Come on!  Gotta be for sure this year or else!

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Update as at 11.4.22: 

Well, who would have thought Russia would have invaded Ukraine?

My June estimate of Tesla stock is now looking unlikely, as there have been the following mitigating circumstances:

1. Lockdown in Shanghai

2. Likelihood of interruption of gas supplies to Germany.  A bit of bad luck there, as they have only just started production.

Update as at 27.10.22

Spacex: My pessimistic prediction was not pessimistic enough! Still no orbital flight.

Prediction wrong.

Tesla Robot:  What they have done and shown us is quite a feat, considering they are only

just getting started. My prediction wrong again!  

Tesla Full Self Driving:  My prediction on target so far.  Will not be until 2023.

Tesla Cars:  Demand is good and production amazing, so prediction on target so far.

Robots: There are new ones appearing daily, so this is an active area. Prediction on target.

Artificial Intelligence: Not a lot of progress evident, or am I looking in the wrong place?

Prediction off target.

Architectural Software: Still waiting: I have 2 months left in 2022! Again, I may be looking in the wrong place.

Tesla Semi and Cybertruck: On target, if they do deliver on 1.12.22.  Cybertruck? Looks like prediction off target.